Monday, June 12th., 2017
Settlement, Soft Coup, Realignment or Regional War: 4 Scenarios for Qatar Crisis
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AFP 2017/ KARIM JAAFAR
The Russian International Affairs Council, a powerful Moscow-based think tank, estimates that there are four scenarios for resolving the ongoing diplomatic conflict between Qatar and other Arab and Muslim states. Written by renowned Middle East observer Vitaly Naumkin, the report outlines what Russia and its regional allies should be prepared for.
Last week, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Egypt cut off diplomatic relations
with the tiny Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar, accusing Doha
of supporting terrorism and destabilizing the Middle East. The Maldives,
Mauritius, Mauritania, Comoros, Somaliland, the Aden-based government
of civil war-raged Yemen, and the Tobruk-based Libyan government soon
joined them, with Jordan, Djibouti, Senegal and Chad lowering diplomatic
contacts with or recalling their ambassadors from Doha.
Moscow has been watching the diplomatic crisis very closely, and has stressed the need to resolve the conflict peacefully, offered emergency food supplies to Qatar, and called for direct negotiations between Doha and the other Arab states to resolve the crisis. In a paper on the diplomatic conflict for the Russian International Affairs Council, a powerful think tank set up by the Russian president, Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Middle East Studies director Vitaly Naumkin described four broad scenarios for the resolution of the crisis. These, he said, include negotiations and settlement, the removal of Qatar's leaders from power, Doha's geopolitical realignment, and a devastating regional war.
The academic stressed that in its present form, the ultimatum which
Arab countries have presented to Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani
would cause him to lose all creditability if implemented.
Under
the first scenario, the parties resolve their differences as a result
of mediation by regional and world powers. Doha will be forced to make
some concessions, but will not be asked to sacrifice its key foreign
policy initiatives, including friendly relations with Iran, and links
to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The second scenario sees mediation efforts fail, and pressure
on Qatar escalate. Amid threats of even more severe struggle, the
emirate's leadership is forced to resign, and is replaced in a soft
change of power scenario.
Naumkin believes that Russia's most likely course of action will be
to try to find ways to use its regional influence to cool tensions, all
without directly interfering in the conflict. Moscow, he noted, "has
historical ties and many common interests with all the actors in the
drama being played out in the region." Therefore, "in view of the
developing relations between Russia and the countries of the Persian
Gulf, as well as Egypt and Jordan, Moscow will likely adhere to an
equitable course toward the conflicting sides," the expert concluded.
Moscow has been watching the diplomatic crisis very closely, and has stressed the need to resolve the conflict peacefully, offered emergency food supplies to Qatar, and called for direct negotiations between Doha and the other Arab states to resolve the crisis. In a paper on the diplomatic conflict for the Russian International Affairs Council, a powerful think tank set up by the Russian president, Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Middle East Studies director Vitaly Naumkin described four broad scenarios for the resolution of the crisis. These, he said, include negotiations and settlement, the removal of Qatar's leaders from power, Doha's geopolitical realignment, and a devastating regional war.
"I am inclined to think that the parties will
manage to come to an agreement, since no one is interested
in aggravating a conflict involving states which hold the main cards
in the global oil and gas market," Naumkin wrote. The expert recalled
that in addition to its gas reserves, Qatar is also rich in helium; it
has the fourth largest reserves of the gaseous element in the world.
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AP Photo/ Maneesh Bakshi
Gas production facility is seen at Ras Laffan, Qatar (File)
"Qatar's Arab neighbors are demanding not so
much the termination of the financing of recognized terrorist groups
(which are being supported by other Arab states as well), so much as a
refusal by Doha to engage in rapprochement with Iran, the expulsion
of the Muslim Brotherhood and the leaders of the Hamas movement, the
closure of media resources such as Al-Jazeera, Alquds Alarabi, the
Arabic version of the Huffington Post, and the London-based Middle East
Eye and Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed newspapers."
Citing
high-level contacts among Saudi officials, Naumkin revealed that the
ultimate aim of Qatar's opponents is the resignation of the emir. In
this situation, the expert said that even if Doha compromises and
concedes every point in the ultimatum, new demands might be presented.
Accordingly, Naumkin noted that there are four broad scenarios for resolving the diplomatic crisis.
©
REUTERS/ Naseem Zeitoon
A
painting depicting Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani is seen
on a bus during a demonstration in support of him in Doha, Qatar June
11, 2017
The third scenario, according to Naumkin, sees
an escalation of the confrontation, with Qatar deciding to take drastic
measures up to and including leaving the Gulf Cooperation Council, and a
greater rapprochement with Turkey and Iran. In this case, the analyst
noted, there is a chance that Doha's policy toward the Syrian crisis
will shift (away from supporting terror groups), and that Qatar might
subsequently join the Astana triumvirate on the Syrian settlement
(Russia, Iran, and Turkey), subsequently turning the group into a
quartet.
US soldier uses a pair of binoculars to scans the landscape around his Patriot Missiles based at Al Udeid AB, Qatar
Finally, the fourth scenario sees a sharp
escalation in the conflict, which results in an open military
confrontation, and serious consequences for all parties involved. "But
even in this almost unimaginable scenario, this sort of confrontation
cannot last for any considerable period of time," Naumkin stressed.
Ultimately,
Naumkin noted that it was difficult to answer whether Russia would
benefit or stand to lose from a new crisis in the Middle East.
"Some analysts say Russia will win out, because
oil and gas prices may rise (although this has not happened yet).
Furthermore, the volume of LNG supplies from Qatar on the world market
would decrease, creating a niche that Russian producers may occupy."
Others calculate that Moscow would lose out, "because the
destabilization of the region will cause damage to everyone in one way
or another; furthermore, for the implementation of the
not-inconsiderable Qatari investments in the Russian economy and
continuation of investment cooperation, stability and security in this
country are needed."
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AFP 2017/ KARIM JAAFAR/AL-WATAN DOHA
Qatari army forces take part in a military parade during the Gulf emirate's National Day celebrations in Doha. (File)