Can Putin Save Syria by Ditching Assad? by MIke Whitney
(“Deconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America’s most hopeless war“, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings Institute)
"...The differences between the US and Russia
are irreconcilable. Washington wants and end to the nation-state system
and create a new world order, while Putin wants to maintain the current
system in order to preserve national sovereignty, self determination,
and multi-polarity...."
"...All of these strongly suggest that the
primary aim of US policy is to break Syria up into smaller units that
pose no threat to US-Israeli regional hegemony. This is the US gameplan
in a nutshell.
In contrast, Russia does not want a
divided Syria. Aside from the fact that Moscow and Damascus are
long-term allies (and Russia has a critical naval facility in Tartus,
Syria), a balkanized Syria poses serious threats for Russia, the most
significant of which is the probable emergence of a jihadi base of
operations that will be used to deploy terrorists across Central Asia
thus undermining Moscow’s grand plan to integrate the continents into a
giant free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
Russian President Vladimir Putin takes
the threat of terrorism very seriously, which is why he has been working
around-the-clock to engage leaders from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq,
Syria, Iran, the Kurds and Syrian opposition groups in negotiations to
put an end to the fighting and reestablish security in Syria...."
"....Clearly, this is the result that Putin wanted. Here’s how Lavrov summed it up two days ago:
“I have already said, Russia and Saudi
Arabia support all principles of the June 30, 2012 Geneva communique, in
particular, the need to preserve government institutions, including the
Syrian army. I believe its participation in the effective struggle
against terrorists is truly essential...."
"...So, Turkish tanks loaded with troops that
have been armed and trained by Turkey, cross the border into Syria
where they are expected to clear and capture territory up to and perhaps
including Aleppo?
That sounds a lot like an invasion to me; how about you?..."
- What Putin wants is a united Syria and the defeat of ISIS and fellow travellers
- Getting the Saudis on board could go a long way toward accomplishing this
- To get that Moscow could live with a transition of power from Assad to another leader chosen by Syrians
Supported by religious minorities and moderate Sunnis
Moscow’s geostrategic objectives in Syria
are the polar opposite of Washington’s. Grasping this simple fact is
the easiest way to get a fix on what’s really going on in the
war-torn country.
What Washington wants is explained in
great detail in a piece by Michael E. O’Hanlon at the Brookings
Institute titled “Deconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America’s
most hopeless war”. Here’s an excerpt:
“…the only realistic path forward may be a
plan that in effect deconstructs Syria….the international community
should work to create pockets with more viable security and governance
within Syria over time…
Creation of these sanctuaries would
produce autonomous zones that would never again have to face the
prospect of rule by either Assad or ISIL….
The interim goal might be a confederal
Syria, with several highly autonomous zones… The confederation would
likely require support from an international peacekeeping force….to make
these zones defensible and governable….The autonomous zones would be
liberated with the clear understanding that there was no going back to
rule by Assad or a successor.”
(“Deconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America’s most hopeless war“, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings Institute)
Forget about ISIS and Syrian President
Bashar al Assad for a minute and, instead, focus on the terms
“autonomous zones”, “creation of …sanctuaries”, “safe zones” and “a
confederal Syria.”
All of these strongly suggest that the
primary aim of US policy is to break Syria up into smaller units that
pose no threat to US-Israeli regional hegemony. This is the US gameplan
in a nutshell.
In contrast, Russia does not want a
divided Syria. Aside from the fact that Moscow and Damascus are
long-term allies (and Russia has a critical naval facility in Tartus,
Syria), a balkanized Syria poses serious threats for Russia, the most
significant of which is the probable emergence of a jihadi base of
operations that will be used to deploy terrorists across Central Asia
thus undermining Moscow’s grand plan to integrate the continents into a
giant free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
Russian President Vladimir Putin takes
the threat of terrorism very seriously, which is why he has been working
around-the-clock to engage leaders from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq,
Syria, Iran, the Kurds and Syrian opposition groups in negotiations to
put an end to the fighting and reestablish security in Syria.
It’s worth noting that there’s been an
effective blackout of these crucial negotiations in the western media,
mainly because they make Putin look like a peacemaker who is respected
among other world leaders and who is making every effort to stop the
spread of terrorism. Obviously, that doesn’t jibe with the media’s
portrayal of Putin as the new Hitler, so they’ve simply omitted the
meetings from their coverage.
The differences between the US and Russia
are irreconcilable. Washington wants and end to the nation-state system
and create a new world order, while Putin wants to maintain the current
system in order to preserve national sovereignty, self determination,
and multi-polarity.
This is the basis of the clash between
Russia and the US. Putin rejects unipolar global rule and is working as
fast as he can to build a coalition capable of resisting persistent US
intervention, manipulation and aggression.
This is no small task, and it involves a
great deal of discretion. Putin does not have the wherewithal to
confront the US Goliath at every turn, so he must pick his fights
carefully and operate largely in the shadows, which is what he is doing.
In the last few months, Putin has
convened meetings with all the main players in the Syria drama, and has
made remarkable headway in resolving the crisis. The main sticking point
now, is whether Assad will remain as president or be removed as Saudi
Arabia, Turkey and the US demand. Putin is resisting this outcome for
many reasons.
First, he doesn’t be seen as betraying an
ally which would seriously hurt his reputation as a reliable partner.
Second, he can’t allow himself to comply with a “regime change” doctrine
that eschews international law and that could eventually be used
against him in a future coup. Allowing foreign leaders to pick and
choose who is a “legitimate” leader and who isn’t is a prescription for
disaster, as is evident in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Yemen.
Finally, Putin cannot simply hand Washington an easy victory on a matter
of this magnitude although, in the end, Assad will probably be gone.
So, what’s been going on behind the scenes?
Back in June, Putin met with the Saudi
Crown Prince and Defence Minister Mohammad bin Salman in St Petersburg
an started working on an “international legal framework for creating a
coalition to fight terrorism in the region.” Soon after, he met with the
heads of opposition groups and high-ranking officials from Saudi
Arabia, Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The goal was to implement the
so-called Geneva communiqué that was ratified in June 30, 2012. In
brief, Geneva provides for:
Establishment of a transitional governing
body with full executive powers that could include members of the
government and opposition, and should be formed on the basis of
mutual consent.
Participation of all groups and segments of society in Syria in a meaningful national dialogue process
Review of the constitutional order and the legal system
Free and fair multi-party elections for the new institutions and offices that have been established.
As you can see, Geneva does not resolve
the central issue, which is: “Does Assad stay or go?” That question is
not answered definitively. It all depends of composition of the
“transitional governing body” and the outcome of future elections.
Clearly, this is the result that Putin wanted. Here’s how Lavrov summed it up two days ago:
“I have already said, Russia and Saudi
Arabia support all principles of the June 30, 2012 Geneva communique, in
particular, the need to preserve government institutions, including the
Syrian army. I believe its participation in the effective struggle
against terrorists is truly essential.
I have already said that though we hold
identical positions on the settlement of the crisis, we also have our
differences, and one of them concerns the destiny of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad. We believe that all issues of settlement, including the
parameters of the transitional period and political reforms, should be
resolved by Syrians themselves. The Geneva communique reads that these
issues should be resolved by consensus between the Government and the
entire spectrum of opposition forces.”
You can see by this statement what Putin
really wants. He wants to “preserve government institutions, including
the Syrian army” to avoid another Iraq-type nightmare scenario. (Note:
Remember what happened to Iraq after Bremer disbanded the army.) What he
doesn’t want, is to create a power-vacuum that leads to another failed,
balkanized hellhole that serves as a breeding ground for terrorists
that will eventually come knocking on Moscow’s door. He doesn’t want
that at all. That only serves Washington’s objectives, not Russia’s.
Also, the whole idea of a “transitional
governing body” and “free and fair multi-party elections” gives Putin a
way to back away from Assad without looking like he’s throwing him under
the bus.
Some will probably criticize this and say
that Putin is “selling out a friend and ally”, but that’s not entirely
true. He’s trying to balance two opposing things at the same time. He’s
trying to maintain his commitment to an ally while accommodating Saudi
Arabia so they agree to help him to end the hostilities. So, yes, there
is a bit of triangulation involved, but what choice does he have? In
practical terms, he can either strike a deal fast or allow the window of
opportunity to slam shut.
Because Washington doesn’t want a deal.
Washington wants war. Washington cannot achieve its goal of breaking up
Syria and redrawing the map of the Middle East if peacemaker Putin
prevails. Let’s put it this way: If Putin gets Saudi Arabia on board,
then a good portion of the funding for jihadi groups will dry up, the
Syrian Army, assisted by Iraqi and Kurdish forces, will have greater
success on the battlefield, and ISIS will be annihilated.
How does that serve Washington’s interests?
It doesn’t. And even if Assad is removed,
the process (Geneva) is such that the next president is not going to be
a hand-picked US stooge, but someone who is supported by the majority
of the Syrian people. Needless to say, Washington doesn’t like
that idea.
The only glitch to the plan is that Putin
must move very fast. The US has already gotten the green-light from
Ankara to launch its drone attacks and bombing raids from Incirlik air
base in Turkey, which means the conflict is going to intensify in the
weeks and months to come. Also, Turkey’s hardline President Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan appears to be using the US aerial attacks as cover for stealing
Syrian sovereign territory in the North and declaring it a “safe
zone”. Get a load of this clip from an August 11 article in
the International Business Times:
“A group of ethnic Turkmen fighters
arrived in Azaz, Syria, on Monday afternoon to launch the first phase of
a joint U.S.-Turkish initiative to establish an Islamic State
group-free “safe zone” in the country, two soldiers fighting in northern
Syria told International Business Times via Skype.
Tanks carrying the fighters entered
through the Bab al-Salama border, crossing from southeastern Turkey into
the town of Azaz, Syria, setting off a wave of attacks by the Islamic
State militant group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in the town of Marea,
which forced the al-Qaeda extremist group Jabhat al-Nusra to retreat.
“At first everyone thought the tanks were filled with Turkish soldiers, but it was the Turkmen,” one of the rebel fighters said.
The soldiers, interviewed Tuesday by
IBTimes, were trained in Turkey and are in one of the biggest
moderate-opposition rebel coalitions in the country. They spoke on
condition of anonymity because they are in combat. Shifting alliances
among rebel groups in the country have left them fearing retribution if
they identified themselves on the record.
One of the soldiers, a commander,
recently attended talks with the Turkish government in the capital city
of Ankara regarding the Turkish-U.S. plan to create a safe zone in the
northern part of the country.” (“Turkey, US, Syrian ISIS-Free Safe Zone: Turkmen Brigades Move Into Syria, Al-Nusra Moves Out, Soldiers Say“, IBT)
So, Turkish tanks loaded with troops that
have been armed and trained by Turkey, cross the border into Syria
where they are expected to clear and capture territory up to and perhaps
including Aleppo?
That sounds a lot like an invasion to me; how about you?
Bottom line: If Putin wants to prevent
Washington from splitting up Syria and transforming it into a
terrorist breeding ground, he’s going to have to move fast; get the
Saudis on board, put an end to the bloodshed, and implement Geneva.
It’s not going to be easy, but he seems to be on the right track.