We didn't have long to wait for the answer:
on Saturday Bahrain government claimed the blast was a "terorrist act" directed by Iran.
In a statement on Twitter, the Bahrain Ministry of Interior said that "
evidence
gathered by the inspection team confirms that this was an intentional
act undertaken by terrorists intending to undermine the security of the
Kingdom" with Bahrain's interior minister, Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, adding that the blast was "
the latest example of a terrorist act performed by terrorists in direct contact with & under instruction from, Iran."
Bahrain's Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa later tweeted
that the explosion had targeted a pipeline running between the island
nation and neighboring Saudi Arabia, which provides financial and
security support to the kingdom.
"This is a dangerous Iranian escalation aimed at terrorizing citizens and damaging the world's oil industry," the minister tweeted.
In a carefully orchestrated escalation, one largely staged for public
consumption purposes, also on Saturday Saudi Arabia said it was
suspending pumping oil to Bahrain following the pipeline blast. The
Saudi energy minister also said it had increased security precautions at
all facilities following the Bahrain blast. Which, for the cynics out
there, means a "pipeline explosion" in Saudi Arabia, one which will also
be blamed on Iran-guided terrorists, is likely imminent.
While Iran had no immediate comment Saturday, it has long denied being behind Bahrain's militant groups.
The explosion damaged cars and nearby buildings, forcing firefighters
to evacuate those close to the flames in Buri, just outside of the
capital, Manama. Authorities later extinguished the blaze on the
pipeline belonging to the state-run Bahrain Petroleum Co. While no one
was injured in the explosion late Friday night near the Shiite village
of Buri and no militant group immediately claimed the blast, Bahrain's
reaction which was the latest to scapegoat Iran for the plethora of
problems to hit the Gulf region, opened a new front in the low-level
insurgency plaguing Bahrain since its 2011 Arab Spring protests.
Bahrain, which is a critical Gulf nation to regional US strategic
interests as it is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, faces occasional
attacks from local Shiite militant groups as the kingdom ruled by the
Sunni Al Khalifa family continues a crackdown on all dissent,
imprisoning or forcing politicians and activists into exile. Independent
news gathering there has grown more difficult, with the government
refusing to accredit two AP reporters and others .
However, as AP notes, that previous campaign of bombings and
shootings had not seen the island's oil infrastructure targeted, even
immediately after Emirati and Saudi forces helped Bahrain put down its
2011 Arab Spring protests. As such Friday's pipeline attack could be a
sign of a far more dangerous escalation - whether real or "false
flagged" - one which seeks to scapegoat Iran.
Unlike its oil export powerhouse neighbors, Bahrain produced only
64,000 barrels of crude oil a day in 2016, far lower than the other
oil-producing nations of the Persian Gulf, according to the EIA.
Additionally, due to ongoing budget difficulties, Bahrain's foreign
currency reserves had plunged to levels not seen in over a decade.
Bahrain has faced increasing financial
pressure in recent years: the IMF estimates that Bahrain needs oil
prices at $99 a barrel to balance its budget this year, compared with
$73.1 a barrel for Saudi Arabia, which is overhauling its economy. While
Brent crude is trading at the highest level in more than two years,
it’s still almost $40 below Bahrain’s breakeven price.
Things took a turn for the worse last week, when we
observed the plunge in the Bahrain Dinar forward market...
... following a
Bloomberg report that Bahrain had requested a bailout from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. And judging by the surge in reserves immediately after...
... Bahrain may have received it.
“Most people are fully expecting the other Gulf countries to come to
Bahrain’s aid,” said Jason Tuvey, a London-based economist at Capital
Economics. “If Bahrain was forced to devalue its currency it would
probably start to raise questions about other currency pegs.”
True, but Saudi Arabia - which itself is facing a dire financial
situation - would not have given Bahrain billions with no strings
attached. And as may be the case, one of the conditions appears to have
been to blame any "imminent terrorist attacks" on Iran. That's precisely
what happened overnight. As to whether this will be the tipping point
that launches what now appears to be inevitable war between Iran/Lebanon
and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council -
in addition to Israel - we'll just have to wait and see...
