Russia Inflicts Another Massive Diplomatic Defeat on the USA . . . but it seems it isn’t over yet. ~J
This article originally appeared at The Saker
I would argue that, at least so far,
Russia has achieved many important goal in her intervention in Syria.
Most importantly, the Russian intervention in Syria forced the USA to
agree to a conference in which all the regional actors, including Iran,
would be invited. At the end of its proceedings the conference adopted a
joint statement which I have fully reposted here.
I believe
that this statement represents a major diplomatic defeat for the USA and
yet another Russian diplomatic victory. Here some points which have
been agreed upon (with relevant section of the declaration indicated
in brackets):
- Iran will participate in the negotiations about the future of Syria (preamble)
- Syria will not be allowed to break up (#1)
- Syria will not be ruled by a religious regime (#1)
- The Syrian military will not be disbanded (#2)
- Daesh and other terrorists must be defeated (#6)
- The Syrian people will get to chose their leader (#8)
Now let’s translate that into political terms and see what this implies.
- The USA has failed to isolate Iran whose crucial role is now recognized by all
- The USA will not be allowed to partition into a Wahabistan and an Alawistan
- None of the factions supported by the US (all being religious) will be allowed to rule
- The Syrian military (which is solidly pro-Assad) will not be disbanded or disarmed
- All the factions supported by the US (all being Wahabi extremists) must be militarily defeated
- Assad will be allowed to remain in power (since he is by far the most popular leader)
Now, I am not stupid or naive to believe
for one second that the USA will truly abide by these terms. Quite to
the contrary. All I am saying is that Russia has inflicted yet another
massive diplomatic defeat on the USA similar to the one Lough Erne or to
the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 Agreements. In Lough Erne, for example, the
USA had to accept the following statement: “We call on the Syrian
authorities and opposition at the Geneva Conference jointly to
commit to destroying and expelling from Syria all organisations and
individuals affiliated to Al Qaeda, and any other non-state actors
linked to terrorism.” In other words, Daesh-linked Wahabis were told to join forces with the Syrian military to defeat Daesh! Of course, we all know that this did not happen. But what is important here is that the US actions and policies are so indefensible that the USA has to condemn or, at least, contradict them, in any public forum.
Let me
repeat this once more: what the US is doing on the ground, in reality,
is in complete and total contradiction with the declaratory policy of
the USA:
|
US actions/policies/goals
|
US official policy on Syria
|
|
Full military support for Daesh
|
Categorical opposition to Daesh
|
|
Promotion of a Wahabi regime
|
Promotion of a secular regime
|
|
Breakup of Syria
|
Maintaining a unitary Syria
|
|
Destruction of the Syrian military
|
Maintaining the Syria military
|
|
Removal of Assad at any cost
|
Syrian people get to elect Assad
|
|
Sabotage of all Russian efforts
|
Collaboration with Russia
|
|
Regime change in Iran
|
Iran as a partner
|
While,
at least so far, the USA has been successful in doing the exact
opposite of what it has been declaring, this becomes extremely difficult
once the Russian military is directly involved. This was best
illustrated by the surreal moment when following US accusations that
Russia was bombing the “wrong” guys the USA refused to give Russia a
list of bad guys and a list of good guys.
This
tactic, to force the USA to formally agree to something which they
oppose is also what Putin used in the Minsk-2 Agreement where the
Russians basically forced the USA and its puppet regime to accept a
dialog with the Novorussians even though such a dialog is absolutely out
of the question. This is what Russia is doing now: forcing the USA to
negotiate with Assad and Iran.
Russia’s declared policies and actions in contrast, are as simple, straightforward and in full conformity with each other: defeating terrorists, support the legal Syrian government, uphold international law. In Russia’s case, there is no need to hide anything and, in fact, the Russians have been amazingly transparent about their operations.
For years
now the USA has been dreaming of doing to Assad what was done to Hussein
and Gaddafi and they most definitely have the military might to do so:
what they are discovering, to their great distress, is that Russia is
capable of defeating US plans by skillfully using a mix of intense
diplomacy and limited military efforts. So far, the US have not found a
way of coping with this situation.
On the military front the situation remains, at best, complex. The best reports about the combat situation that I have found so far are, yet again, on Colonel Cassad’s website. To make a long story short and in sparing you all the details battle by battle, it appears that the Syrian Army is making slow progress on many directions, but it has been unable to capitalize on the Russian airstrikes and these modest tactical successes have not produced any operational breakthroughs. In simple terms: the government forces are struggling very hard to achieve even modest progress.
I am, by the way,
in no way blaming the Syrians for that. The frontlines are long,
convoluted, the Wahabis are well dug in, the Russian air force
contingent is very small and can only do so much. One Russian expert
declared today that he believes that the Syrian military lost about
85,000 men since the war began. If that is true, it would explain, at
least partially, the fact that the Syrians are over-stretched and are
having a hard time concentrating enough forces in one location to
achieve a breakthrough.
Still, it
is quite possible that the combined efforts of the Russians and the
Syrians will eventually yield an operational success and that the Daesh
forces will suddenly collapse, at least on one section of the front.
The problem with that is that both sides are in a race for time: the
next round of negotiations is scheduled in two weeks already and, so
far, neither side has much to show to come to the negotiating table in a
position of strength. Apparently, the Americans are planning some kind
of attack on Raqqa, and they want to use primarily Kurdish forces. If
so, then this is a rather bizarre plan. After all, why would the
Kurdish forces agree to such a dangerous and potentially costly (in
terms of equipment and lives) operation far away from their own zones
which they must protect in more or less all directions?! In comparison,
the Russian plan of unblocking the Syrian military and helping it
reconquer Aleppo and the key highway linking Damascus to Homs and Aleppo
appears much more realistic, if full of potential difficulties. If the
Syrians fail to achieve these goals in the next 2 weeks, then this will
immensely complicate the upcoming negotiations and might forces Iran
and Hezbollah to commit a much larger force to relieve the Syrian Army.
The next couple of weeks will be crucial.