Turkey Is a Major Player in EU-Russia Energy Arm-Wrestle
This also adds to the picture. ~J
Turkish decision to go along with Turkish Strem –
supposedly to be in operation by 2016 end – could wreak havoc with
EU’s energy plans
"....While Turkey is currently reliant on Russian gas, and has
the opportunity to become the energy hub for Russian gas flowing to
Europe, in the future it could also get the necessary supplies from
northern Iraq if it finds common ground with the Kurds, or if the US
manages to overthrow Assad in Syria, it could play a role in the Qatar-Syria Pipeline....."
".....
Western policy makers and investors should recognize that
there will be competition for Turkey’s favor for years to come and the
success of Southern European pipeline infrastructure may depend on the
Moscow-Ankara relationship and Erdogan’s political fortunes. As Europe
confronts its own internal divisions, Turkey is one partner that the
West should keep close at hand..."
Erdogan: spoiled for choice?
Turkey has found itself in a very privileged position. Its
growing economy imports 98% of its gas, but the country suddenly has a
range of options to satisfy this need.
While Turkey is currently reliant on Russian gas, and has
the opportunity to become the energy hub for Russian gas flowing to
Europe, in the future it could also get the necessary supplies from
northern Iraq if it finds common ground with the Kurds, or if the US
manages to overthrow Assad in Syria, it could play a role in the Qatar-Syria Pipeline.
It will be interesting to see which path Turkey chooses, but either way, it can leverage its position for maximum benefit.
According to Forbes
Stream gas pipeline by December 2016, may spell a new era
in Turkey and Russia’s energy and political relations. Coming just after
a case brought by the EU Commission against Gazprom
, and just before Turkey goes to the polls this June, the agreement may
pave the way for a Eurasian Energy Union that will challenge Europe’s
own energy plans.
Russia has plans for its own energy union within the
framework of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union and the
Istanbul-based International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE).
Turkey’s geographic position makes it a strategic participant as a
transit and energy hub country for both Europe and Eurasia’s energy
projects.
Already, Turkey has agreed to participate in Europe’s
planned Southern Gas Corridor, which would bring Caspian gas to Europe
via Turkey to diversify away from Russian gas. Gazprom then sweetened
its deal: It offered Turkey a gas price cut while urging it to host the
competing Turkish Stream pipeline to carry Russian gas to Southern
Europe.
After some maneuvering, the Moscow-Ankara deal was struck
and Turkish Stream will launch by December 2016. Turkish Stream will
also replace Gazprom’s planned South Stream pipeline project, which was
cancelled due to EU regulatory pressure in 2014.
As the EU sets out to forge a European Energy Union, it
should recall Turkey’s strategic role for both Europe and Russia in
their evolving energy strategies.
Western policy makers and investors should recognize that
there will be competition for Turkey’s favor for years to come and the
success of Southern European pipeline infrastructure may depend on the
Moscow-Ankara relationship and Erdogan’s political fortunes. As Europe
confronts its own internal divisions, Turkey is one partner that the
West should keep close at hand