Putin’s Ankara visit: multidimensional and multifaceted convergence Source TODAYS ZAMAN
Russian President Putin attends a joint news conference after talks
with then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the Kremlin in Moscow
on July 18, 2012. (Photo: AP)
November 26, 2014, Wednesday/ 17:39:32/
HASAN KANBOLAT
“Doctor Zhivago”
was Boris Pasternak's first and only novel. It was banned in the Soviet
Union until 1985 on the grounds that it was an anti-Soviet work. It was
first published in Italy in 1957 and won the Nobel Prize for Literature
in 1958. Until Hülya Arslan translated it into Turkish from its original
Russian in 2014, Turkish readers read it from the text translated from
Italian to Turkish. Actually, virtually all Russian works rendered into
Turkish had been translated either from their translations into another
language or from censored or incomplete texts. Therefore, the perception
that Turkish intellectuals held of Russia and Russians was deficient or
incorrect for decades.
Cold War polarization and biased perceptions were not left behind. Now, bilateral relations between Turkey and the Russian Federation are seen increasingly as a multidimensional and multifaceted rapprochement. The political leaders of both countries (Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) are taking bolder steps than their bureaucrats and intellectuals to improve and strengthen Turkish-Russian ties. Thus the current state of bilateral relations between the two countries is at its best in the last five centuries. The fact that the Russian ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, who was appointed to the position in 2013, and Turkey's ambassador to Russia, who was assigned in 2014, are experienced diplomats was also an advantage for the improvement of bilateral relations.
In Ankara, the parties will try to formulate a strategy for boosting the trade volume between the two countries from around $35 billion to $100 billion in 2020. However, this target does not seem to be realistic. The foreign trade volume between the two countries dropped from $37.8 billion in 2008 to $32 or $33 billion in 2014. Moreover, Turkey's exports to Russia declined by 20 percent compared to the 2013 figure. In 2014, Russia rose to become the top country Turkey imports from, leaving Germany behind largely because of oil and natural gas imports. Thus, Russia has emerged as the country with which Turkey has the second most unbalanced foreign trade after China. Germany is still the top country in terms of Turkey's exports, although it ranks second after Russia in terms of imports. Turkey is unable to improve its exports to Russia -- its 2013 exports totaled $6.9 billion. It is having difficulties overcoming the Russian red tape, a legacy of the Cold War, to sell fresh fruits and vegetables. Therefore, the issue of exporting fresh fruits and vegetables -- which is one of Turkey's main items of exports to Russia -- is also expected to be discussed during the HLSCC meeting. Russia used to import all sorts of foodstuffs including bottled drinking water from the US and the EU. Following the Western embargo, Russia is preparing to boost domestic production and buy food from countries like Turkey. It is claimed that rich Russian oligarchs are shifting their financial investments from the Western countries to Turkey where the banking system is strong but lax.
As Turkey has refrained from participating in sanctions against Russia and adopted the Taiwan model concerning the Crimean crisis, this has come as a source of relief for Turkey, Russia, the US and the EU. In other words, Turkey's formula of "maintaining economic cooperation while not recognizing it politically" seems to have made everyone except Kiev happy. The Kremlin is willing to make 30 percent of the funds it will allocate to the restructuring of Crimea available to Turkish companies. Therefore, the US, the EU and even Russian companies are hectically searching for Turkish partners in İstanbul.
Turkey may be unable to increase its exports to Russia, but Russian tourists prove to be a boon. The number of Russian tourists visiting Turkey looks like it will rise to 4.5 million with a 9 percent increase between 2013 and 2014. The decline in oil prices and the weakening of the ruble against the dollar have undermined the Russian economy. So, the inflow of Russian tourists to Turkey may decrease in the summer of 2015. The Russians from the middle and upper classes tend to visit Turkey. The flow of tourists from Russia to Europe has declined by 40 percent.
It was a revolutionary move to abolish visa formalities between the two countries -- even for a period of 30 days -- in April 2011. We should appreciate the personal efforts of Putin and Erdoğan to overcome the Cold War bureaucracy and abolish visas. However, Russian citizens who could stay for 90 days in Turkey with perfunctory visa formalities arrived at the airport before the abolition of visas because they perceived this move as a restriction of their rights. Therefore, Turkey had to introduce the de facto 69 day visa-free regime. During the HLSCC meeting, efforts will be made to increase the 30 day visa-free regime to one that lasts 60 days.
The Ankara summit will also discuss the monuments to be built in both countries to commemorate those who died during World War I. It is estimated that some 35,000 Russian soldiers died in Turkish territories.
International and regional issues such as the crises in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Crimea, the Black Sea and Cyprus will also be discussed during the meeting. Paradoxically, Turkish-Russian relations are improving despite the fact that they nurture diametrically opposed positions on the issues in the regions. This position, however, does not undermine the bilateral relations.
Russians tend to see the Gezi Park protests, the Dec. 17 and Dec. 25 corruption operations and the Maidan movement in the Ukraine as West-oriented “second-generation colorful revolutions.” They see former President Viktor Yanukovych as a coward who fled to Russia but Erdoğan as a successful leader who refused to give in to the colorful revolutions of the West. Due to the fact that Ankara and the Kremlin's relations with the West are currently problematic and Erdoğan seeks to implement a Russian or Kazakh model of presidency, the rapprochement between the two countries has increased. Russia occasionally notes that Turkey should join the customs union among Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and this is more evidence of rapprochement between the two countries. For this reason, Turkey keeps this rapprochement on the shelf as a plan B in the face of its bid to join the EU.
Cold War polarization and biased perceptions were not left behind. Now, bilateral relations between Turkey and the Russian Federation are seen increasingly as a multidimensional and multifaceted rapprochement. The political leaders of both countries (Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) are taking bolder steps than their bureaucrats and intellectuals to improve and strengthen Turkish-Russian ties. Thus the current state of bilateral relations between the two countries is at its best in the last five centuries. The fact that the Russian ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, who was appointed to the position in 2013, and Turkey's ambassador to Russia, who was assigned in 2014, are experienced diplomats was also an advantage for the improvement of bilateral relations.
Postponed visit set to take place on Dec. 1
Putin will make his postponed visit to Ankara on Dec. 1. In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, Putin had agreed to talk to Erdoğan on the phone on Oct. 11 after a request to do so from Turkey. The fifth meeting of the Turkey-Russia High Level Strategic Cooperation Council (HLSCC) will be the first Erdoğan will chair after becoming president. The meeting is expected to focus on cooperation in the fields of economy and energy. Putin is also preparing to pay a visit to Tashkent in December. The Kremlin and Ankara have transitioned from competition to complementary cooperation in the Caucasus and Central Asia.In Ankara, the parties will try to formulate a strategy for boosting the trade volume between the two countries from around $35 billion to $100 billion in 2020. However, this target does not seem to be realistic. The foreign trade volume between the two countries dropped from $37.8 billion in 2008 to $32 or $33 billion in 2014. Moreover, Turkey's exports to Russia declined by 20 percent compared to the 2013 figure. In 2014, Russia rose to become the top country Turkey imports from, leaving Germany behind largely because of oil and natural gas imports. Thus, Russia has emerged as the country with which Turkey has the second most unbalanced foreign trade after China. Germany is still the top country in terms of Turkey's exports, although it ranks second after Russia in terms of imports. Turkey is unable to improve its exports to Russia -- its 2013 exports totaled $6.9 billion. It is having difficulties overcoming the Russian red tape, a legacy of the Cold War, to sell fresh fruits and vegetables. Therefore, the issue of exporting fresh fruits and vegetables -- which is one of Turkey's main items of exports to Russia -- is also expected to be discussed during the HLSCC meeting. Russia used to import all sorts of foodstuffs including bottled drinking water from the US and the EU. Following the Western embargo, Russia is preparing to boost domestic production and buy food from countries like Turkey. It is claimed that rich Russian oligarchs are shifting their financial investments from the Western countries to Turkey where the banking system is strong but lax.
As Turkey has refrained from participating in sanctions against Russia and adopted the Taiwan model concerning the Crimean crisis, this has come as a source of relief for Turkey, Russia, the US and the EU. In other words, Turkey's formula of "maintaining economic cooperation while not recognizing it politically" seems to have made everyone except Kiev happy. The Kremlin is willing to make 30 percent of the funds it will allocate to the restructuring of Crimea available to Turkish companies. Therefore, the US, the EU and even Russian companies are hectically searching for Turkish partners in İstanbul.
Turkey may be unable to increase its exports to Russia, but Russian tourists prove to be a boon. The number of Russian tourists visiting Turkey looks like it will rise to 4.5 million with a 9 percent increase between 2013 and 2014. The decline in oil prices and the weakening of the ruble against the dollar have undermined the Russian economy. So, the inflow of Russian tourists to Turkey may decrease in the summer of 2015. The Russians from the middle and upper classes tend to visit Turkey. The flow of tourists from Russia to Europe has declined by 40 percent.
It was a revolutionary move to abolish visa formalities between the two countries -- even for a period of 30 days -- in April 2011. We should appreciate the personal efforts of Putin and Erdoğan to overcome the Cold War bureaucracy and abolish visas. However, Russian citizens who could stay for 90 days in Turkey with perfunctory visa formalities arrived at the airport before the abolition of visas because they perceived this move as a restriction of their rights. Therefore, Turkey had to introduce the de facto 69 day visa-free regime. During the HLSCC meeting, efforts will be made to increase the 30 day visa-free regime to one that lasts 60 days.
Turkey relies on Russia for 65 percent of energy imports
Energy is an important issue between the two countries. Turkey depends on Russia for 65 percent of its energy imports. Energy is the main reason for the trade deficit in foreign trade between Turkey and Russia. Turkey wants Russia to increase the annual natural gas supply to 3 billion cubic meters and decrease the natural gas price. At the summit the Mersin-Akkuyu nuclear power station, which is planned to be built by Rosatom with $20 billion in equity capital, will be discussed as well. The meeting is expected to produce decisions regarding the construction license applications, provision of field data, the completion of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes and the construction of certain components. According to the schedule, Rosatom will open an office in İstanbul in 2015 and cooperate with Turkey in non-nuclear areas as well. The bilateral cooperation in the field of high technology (defense, automotive, space and rocket) is on the rise. When Russia's largest commercial vehicle manufacturer Gaz started to produce vehicles in line with EU standards, this came to be a source of pride for the Russian automotive industry.The Ankara summit will also discuss the monuments to be built in both countries to commemorate those who died during World War I. It is estimated that some 35,000 Russian soldiers died in Turkish territories.
International and regional issues such as the crises in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Crimea, the Black Sea and Cyprus will also be discussed during the meeting. Paradoxically, Turkish-Russian relations are improving despite the fact that they nurture diametrically opposed positions on the issues in the regions. This position, however, does not undermine the bilateral relations.
Russians tend to see the Gezi Park protests, the Dec. 17 and Dec. 25 corruption operations and the Maidan movement in the Ukraine as West-oriented “second-generation colorful revolutions.” They see former President Viktor Yanukovych as a coward who fled to Russia but Erdoğan as a successful leader who refused to give in to the colorful revolutions of the West. Due to the fact that Ankara and the Kremlin's relations with the West are currently problematic and Erdoğan seeks to implement a Russian or Kazakh model of presidency, the rapprochement between the two countries has increased. Russia occasionally notes that Turkey should join the customs union among Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and this is more evidence of rapprochement between the two countries. For this reason, Turkey keeps this rapprochement on the shelf as a plan B in the face of its bid to join the EU.