Κυριακή 19 Δεκεμβρίου 2021

December, Sunday 19th., 2021Escobar: Putin, Xi Running Circles Around Biden's Hybrid War

 December, Sunday 19th., 2021

<<"...None of that will ever happen with Iran joining the new Russia-China mechanism.

And that leads us to the interconnection of China’s BRI expansion in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The reconstruction of Syria may be largely financed via the non-SWIFT mechanism. Same for China buying Iraqi energy. Same for the reconstruction of a Yemen possibly hosting a Chinese-owned port, part of the “string of pearls.”

Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Israel may remain in the US financial sphere of influence, or lack thereof. And even if there is no BRICS nation anchoring West Asia, and no regional integration economic agreement on the horizon, the role of the economic integrator is bound to be eventually played by China.

China will play a similar role to Brazil anchoring MERCOSUR, Russia anchoring the EAEU and South Africa anchoring the SADC/SACU.

Both BRI and the EAEU will get a tremendous boost by bypassing SWIFT. You simply can’t go multipolar if you trade using (devalued) imperial legal tender.

BRI, EAEU and those interlocking economic development agreements, combined with digital technology, will be integrating billions of people in the Global South.

Think of a possible, auspicious future spelling out cheap telecom delivering financial services and world market access, in a non-dollar environment, to all those who have been so far cut off from a truly globalized economy."
Escobar: Putin, Xi Running Circles Around Biden's Hybrid War >>

<<"...The China Ocean Shipping Company Ltd (COSCO) of China was progressively at work in the Greek port of Piraeus and took over its two main container terminals in 2008 on a 35 year lease. With its continuous political and diplomatic pursuits, the Chinese Shipping giant (COSCO- third largest container shipping company of the world) has taken over the remaining Third container terminal and the Piraeus port authority to run until 2052. With the 600 million euros investment the Chinese company is planning to convert the port into the biggest commercial harbour and boost it to become the unrivalled hub of the growing Asia-Europe trade. And with the acquisition of this strategic port at the gate of Europe, known as “Pearl of the Mediterranean”, China strongly enters the heart of Europe....

By Dr Khushnam P N 
(Independent IR and Regional Security Researcher and Analyst)>>
         ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
So we  shall perhaps have the following "string of pearls":

"the interconnection of China’s BRI expansion in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The reconstruction of Syria may be largely financed via the non-SWIFT mechanism. Same for China buying Iraqi energy. Same for the reconstruction of a Yemen possibly hosting a Chinese-owned port, part of the “string of pearls.” ,
Versus this following "string of pearls", where Piraeus is most likely to be attached with? :
"Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Israel may remain in the US financial sphere of influence, or lack thereof."

The Greek Diplomacy and Economic Think Tanks, as well as the political personnel and Cypriots too, should be arduously working on these  SWIFT-Y/'STRING OF PEARLS' scenaros-issues... Are they..?
Maria L. Pelekanaki

Escobar: Putin, Xi Running Circles Around Biden's Hybrid War

by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Dec 19, 2021 - 12:00 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

Russia and China's announcement of an independent financial trading platform will free nations under US sanctions from western intrusion into their commercial activities...

Vladimir Putin got straight to the point. At the opening of his one hour and fourteen minute video conversation with Xi Jinping on 15 December, he described Russia-China relations as “an example of genuine inter-state cooperation in the 21st century.”

Their myriad levels of cooperation have been known for years now – from trade, oil and gas, finance, aerospace and the fight against Covid-19, to the progressive interconnection of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).

But now the stage was set for the announcement of a serious counter-move in their carefully coordinated ballet opposing the relentless Hybrid War/Cold War 2.0 combo deployed by Empire.

As Assistant to the President for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov succinctly explained, Putin and Xi agreed to create an “independent financial structure for trade operations that could not be influenced by other countries.”

Diplomatic sources, off the record, confirmed the structure may be announced by a joint summit before the end of 2022.

This is a stunning game-changer in more ways than one. It had been extensively discussed in previous bilaterals and in preparations for BRICS summits – mostly centered on increasing the share of yuan and rubles in Russia-China settlements, bypassing the US dollar, and opening new stock market options for Russian and Chinese investors.

Now we’ve come to the crunch. And the catalyzing event was none other than US hawks floating the – financially nuclear – idea of expelling Russia from SWIFT, the messaging network used by 11,000+ banks in over 200 countries, as well as financial institutions, for rapid money transfers worldwide.

Cutting off Russia from SWIFT would be part of a harsh new sanctions package developed in response to an ‘invasion’ of Ukraine that will never happen – mainly because the only ones praying for it are professional NATO warmongers.

Profiting from a strategic blunder

Once again, an American strategic blunder offers the Russia-China self-described “comprehensive strategic partnership” the chance to advance their coordination.

Ushakov put it very diplomatically: it’s time to bypass a SWIFT mechanism “influenced by third countries” to form “an independent financial structure.”

That amounts to a serious game-changer for the entire Global South – as scores of nations yearn to be released from a de facto US dollar dictatorship, complete with recurring Fed quantitative easing circus packages.

Russia and China have been experimenting with their alternative payment systems for quite a while now: the Russian SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages) and the Chinese CIPS (Cross Border Interbank Payment System).

It won’t be easy, as the most powerful Chinese banks are deep into SWIFT and have expressed their reservations about SPFS. Yet, they will have to inevitably integrate prior to the launch of the new mechanism, possibly in late 2022.

Once the most important Russian and Chinese banks – from Sberbank to the Bank of China – adopt the system, the path opens for other banks across Eurasia and the Global South to join in.

In the long run, SWIFT, prone to non-stop American political interference, will be increasingly marginalized, or restricted to Atlanticist latitudes.

Bypassing the US dollar, on trade and all sorts of financial settlements, is an absolutely central plank of the ever-evolving Russia-China notion of a multipolar world.

The road will be long, of course, especially when it comes to offering a solid counterpoint to the US-controlled global financial system, a maze that includes the humongous investment houses of the BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street variety, with their interlocking shareholding of virtually every major multinational company.

Yet a SWIFT escape will rapidly gain momentum, because it is inextricably linked to a series of developments that Putin-Xi touched upon in their conversation, the most important of which are:

1. The progressive interconnection of BRI and EAEU, offering expanding roles to the BRICS-run New Development Bank (NDB) as well as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

2. The increasing geopolitical and geo-economic reach of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), especially after the admission of Iran in October.

3. And crucially, the upcoming Chinese presidency of the BRICS in 2022.

China in 2022 will invest deeply in BRICS+. This expanded BRICS club will be linked to a development process that includes:

1. The consolidation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – a massive East Asia trade deal uniting China, the ASEAN 10 and Japan, and South Korea, as well as Australia and New Zealand.

2. The African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA).

3. And the memoranda of understanding signed between the EAEU and MERCOSUR and between the EAEU and ASEAN.

Anchoring West Asia  

Yaroslav Lissovolik, one of the world’s leading experts on BRICS+, argues that it’s now time for BRICS+ 2.0, operating in a system that opens “the possibility for bilateral and plurilateral agreements to complement the core network of regional alliances formed by BRICS countries and their respective regional neighbors.”

So if we’re talking about a major qualitative jump in terms of economic development across the Global South, the question is inevitable. What about West Asia?

All these interconnections, plus an escape from SWIFT, will certainly profit the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), arguably the flagship BRI project, to which Beijing plans to annex Afghanistan.

CPEC will be progressively connected to the future Iran-China corridor via Afghanistan, part of the 20 year Iran-China strategic deal in which BRI projects will be prominently featured. Iran and China already trade in yuan and rials, so settlements between Iran and China in a non-SWIFT mechanism will be a given.

What happened to Iran is a classic example of SWIFT becoming hostage of imperial political manipulation. Iranian banks were expelled from SWIFT in 2012, because of pressure from the usual suspects. In 2016, access was restored as part of the JCPOA, clinched in 2015. Yet in 2018, under the Trump administration, Iran was once again cut off from SWIFT.

None of that will ever happen with Iran joining the new Russia-China mechanism.

And that leads us to the interconnection of China’s BRI expansion in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The reconstruction of Syria may be largely financed via the non-SWIFT mechanism. Same for China buying Iraqi energy. Same for the reconstruction of a Yemen possibly hosting a Chinese-owned port, part of the “string of pearls.”

Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Israel may remain in the US financial sphere of influence, or lack thereof. And even if there is no BRICS nation anchoring West Asia, and no regional integration economic agreement on the horizon, the role of the economic integrator is bound to be eventually played by China.

China will play a similar role to Brazil anchoring MERCOSUR, Russia anchoring the EAEU and South Africa anchoring the SADC/SACU.

Both BRI and the EAEU will get a tremendous boost by bypassing SWIFT. You simply can’t go multipolar if you trade using (devalued) imperial legal tender.

BRI, EAEU and those interlocking economic development agreements, combined with digital technology, will be integrating billions of people in the Global South.

Think of a possible, auspicious future spelling out cheap telecom delivering financial services and world market access, in a non-dollar environment, to all those who have been so far cut off from a truly globalized economy.

32,154212
 
 

China’s String of Pearls in Eastern Mediterranean and its Implications

China’s String of Pearls in Eastern Mediterranean and its Implications
By Dr Khushnam P N  (Independent IR and Regional Security Researcher and Analyst)
Dr Khushnam P N
Dr Khushnam P N
China is in pursuit of developing and upgrading port in Israel, Lebanon, Greece and Syria for some time. Put together, there are six ports- Haifa and Ashdod in Israel, Tripoli in Lebanon, Piraeus in Greece and Latakia and Tartous in Syria.
The commercial value of the ports from the Chinese commercial strategy of “Belt and Road Initiative” is immensely huge, and their  strategic importance  can turn them into a Chinese “String of Pearls” in the Eastern Mediterranean, and have numerous geostrategic implications and geopolitical consequences.
“String of Pearls” is used to explain the Chinese geopolitical vision to create a strategic chain of ports and bases along the strategic sea lanes with the aim of serving its commercial interests and military influence in a region. Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) won the bid to expand the Container Terminal of Haifa port, Israel which is due to be inaugurated next year (2021) and will be run by the Chinese company for 25 years. In addition, a Chinese government-owned firm, China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) has won to build the port of Ashdod. The deals have brought to the fore many strategic and security issues of Israel- US relations.
The port of Haifa is of utmost strategic value as it hosts the Israel’s alleged nuclear-armed submarine nearby and the US Sixth Fleet considered it as home port, a number of ships visit the port every year. In addition, the US ships also visits the Israeli port of Ashdod. The US 6th Fleet, headquartered in Naples, Italy conducts many joint exercises like Noble Dina, Noble Melinda and Juniper Cobra exercises with the Israeli navy in the strategic Mediterranean Sea. The United States is concerned that closer Chines ties with Israeli and access to its infrastructure may enable it to access the secret intelligence communication.
The Chinese activities have been the matter of larger US-Chinese battle for dominant position in the Eastern Mediterranean. The issue can be traced back to 2000, when Israel was forced to cancel its planned sale of the Phalcon (Airborne Warning And Control System-AWACS) to China with the US warning that it could lose the support of the latter. The sensitive intelligence sharing between the US and Israel and sale of most classified weapons and military hardware like the F-35, 5th generation stealth fighter jet to Israel make US very perturbed with the Chinese increasing involvement in Israeli infrastructure as it will be vulnerable to probable Chinese espionage.
The China Ocean Shipping Company Ltd (COSCO) of China was progressively at work in the Greek port of Piraeus and took over its two main container terminals in 2008 on a 35 year lease. With its continuous political and diplomatic pursuits, the Chinese Shipping giant (COSCO- third largest container shipping company of the world) has taken over the remaining Third container terminal and the Piraeus port authority to run until 2052. With the 600 million euros investment the Chinese company is planning to convert the port into the biggest commercial harbour and boost it to become the unrivalled hub of the growing Asia-Europe trade. And with the acquisition of this strategic port at the gate of Europe, known as “Pearl of the Mediterranean”, China strongly enters the heart of Europe.
Next in the series is the Tripoli port in Lebanon. The China harbour Engineering Company Ltd (CHEC) is at work in deep sea port of Tripoli to upgrade it so that it can accommodate the larger vessels. Besides, to enable the port to perform the new role, another Chinese firm, Qingdao Haixi Heavy-Duty Machinary Co. sold two 28-storey container cranes so that it is capable of servicing 700 containers per day. The capacity check was performed by the docking of a huge container vessel of COSCO in December, 2018 and a formal inauguration of new maritime route between China and Mediterranean was made.
Thus established in the strategic port, the Chinese government is trying to make Tripoli part of its “Belt and Road Initiative” and turn it into a special economic zone, and an important transhipment point between China and European market. The Chinese Construction companies are planning to connect the port with developed transportation network by building an advanced railway connecting it with Beirut and further to Homes and Aleppo in Syria. The port is being equipped with latest technology and infrastructure and by 2022 will become a strategic logistics location of whole region and land routes connecting Mediterranean to Central Asia what China wants for long to avoid Suez transit and reduce time.
The diplomatic channels of the Chinese have played a consistent role in supporting the Syrian regime of President Assad throughout the civil war. Its embassy in Damascus remained open and not only provided political and diplomatic support to the Syrian government but also played dominant role in vetoing anti-Damascus resolutions in the UN Security Council. The reconstruction process of post-conflict Syria is holding the chance of Chinese leading role in the country given the US, European and Gulf countries role so far and financial inability of the Chinese partners, Russia and Iran.
Besides, China is planning to connect the emerging Tripoli hub with the Syrian cities and interior to bring the war-torn country under its economic network and remain unchallenged by any other power at later stage. Tripoli port is around at 30 km from the Syrian border and the Chinese infrastructure companies are already at work to connect two Syrian cities Homes and Aleppo with railroad from Tripoli via Beirut.
In addition, it is in close negotiation with the Syrian government, particularly the Transport Ministry to establish a maritime industries city between Tartous and Latakia with a vision to dominate Syrian coastline as per the Syrian-Chinese Business Council. Thus, gradual Chinese involvement in Syrian reconstruction will likely give it access to its strategic ports of Tartous and Latakia, completing its ‘string of pearls’ in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The developments assume an additional significance with the historic joint drills of Russian and Chinese navies in 2015 in the region which has been dominant domain of the NATO and US coalition force. Thus, the growing Chinese influence in the region with increasing control of the chain of ports in the eastern Mediterranean posing a grave challenge to US, NATO and the European powers and their strategies with numerous implications.
The recent remarks of Mike Pompeo, the secretary of State of United States during his visit to Israel on 13th April, 2020, has asked Tel Aviv to give due reconsideration to its joint projects with China. Earlier, the US had asked the Israeli government to sever ties with China particularly in areas which run potential risk to security and intelligence communications. These concerns are part of the larger US-China competition.
The “String of Pearls” of eastern Mediterranean is the manifestation of a change of the strategic landscape in which China is pushing and filling every space decisively wherever US is weakening or withdrawing from as a global power in the distant regions like Mediterranean, a traditional bastion US-led NATO coalition. These ports are surely the building blocks of its “Maritime Silk Route” vision facilitating its trade across Asia and Europe but it also augments its naval presence to counter risk to its trade, interests and global power pursuit.
Author: Dr Khushnam P N  Independent IR and Regional Security Researcher and  Analyst  (Theories of IR & Regional Security, Politics and Security in West Asia, Indian Foreign Policy, Iran-Israel & US, Indo-Pacific, Geopolitics and Multilateralism). Specialization: Iran, US & Gulf Security.  Bangalore, India