May, Friday 17th., 2019Buchanan: Who Wants This War With Iran?
May, Friday 17th., 2019
"...Pompeo’s speech at the Heritage Foundation read like the terms of
some conquering Caesar dictating to some defeated tribe in Gaul, though
we had yet to fight and win the war, usually a precondition for
dictating terms. Iran’s response was to disregard Pompeo’s demands. And crushing U.S. sanctions were imposed, to brutal effect. Yet, as one looks again at the places where Pompeo ordered Iran out —
Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, Syria, Iraq — no vital interest of ours was
imperiled by any Iranian presence. The people who have a problem with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in
Lebanon are the Israelis whose occupations spawned those movements. As for Yemen, the Houthis overthrew a Saudi puppet. Syria’s Bashar Assad never threatened us, though we armed rebels to
overthrow him. In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militia helped us to
defend Baghdad from the southerly advance of ISIS, which had taken
Mosul. Who wants us to plunge back into the Middle East, to fight a
new and wider war than the ones we fought already this century in
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen? Answer: Pompeo and Bolton, Bibi Netanyahu, Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman and the Sunni kings, princes, emirs, sultans and the other
assorted Jeffersonian democrats on the south shore of the Persian Gulf. And lest we forget, the never-Trumpers and neocons in exile
nursing their bruised egos, whose idea of sweet revenge is a U.S. return
to the Mideast in a war with Iran, which then brings an end to the
Trump presidency...."
Buchanan: Who Wants This War With Iran?
Speaking on state TV of the prospect of a war in the Gulf, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei seemed to dismiss the idea.
“There won’t be any war. … We don’t seek a war, and (the Americans) don’t either. They know it’s not in their interests.”
The ayatollah’s analysis — a war is in neither nation’s interest — is
correct. Consider the consequences of a war with the United States for
his own country.
Iran’s hundreds of swift boats and handful of submarines would be
sunk. Its ports would be mined or blockaded. Oil exports and oil revenue
would halt. Air fields and missile bases would be bombed. The Iranian
economy would crash. Iran would need years to recover.
And though Iran’s nuclear sites are under constant observation and regular inspection, they would be destroyed.
Tehran knows this, which is why, despite 40 years of hostility, Iran
has never sought war with the “Great Satan” and does not want this war
to which we seem to be edging closer every day. What would such a war mean for the United States?
It would not bring about “regime change” or bring down Iran’s
government that survived eight years of ground war with Saddam Hussein’s
Iraq.
If we wish to impose a regime more to our liking in Tehran, we will
have to do it the way we did it with Germany and Japan after 1945, or
with Iraq in 2003. We would have to invade and occupy Iran.
But in World War II, we had 12 million men under arms. And unlike
Iraq in 2003, which is one-third the size and population of Iran, we do
not have the hundreds of thousands of troops to call up and send to the
Gulf. Nor would Americans support such an invasion, as President
Donald Trump knows from his 2016 campaign. Outside a few precincts,
America has no enthusiasm for a new Mideast war, no stomach for any
occupation of Iran.
Moreover, war with Iran would involve firefights in the Gulf that
would cause at least a temporary shutdown in oil traffic through the
Strait of Hormuz — and a worldwide recession. How would that help the world? Or Trump in 2020? How many allies would we have in such a war?
Spain has pulled its lone frigate out of John Bolton’s flotilla
headed for the Gulf. Britain, France and Germany are staying with the
nuclear pact, continuing to trade with Iran, throwing ice water on our
intelligence reports that Iran is preparing to attack us.
Turkey regards Iran as a cultural and economic partner. Russia was a
de facto ally in Syria’s civil war. China continues to buy Iranian oil.
India just hosted Iran’s foreign minister.
So, again, Cicero’s question: “Cui bono?” Who really wants this war? How did we reach this precipice?
A year ago, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a MacArthurian ultimatum, making 12 demands on the Tehran regime.
Iran must abandon all its allies in the Middle East — Hezbollah in
Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza — pull all forces under
Iranian command out of Syria, and then disarm all its Shiite militia in
Iraq.
Iran must halt all enrichment of uranium, swear never to produce
plutonium, shut down its heavy water reactor, open up its military bases
to inspection to prove it never had a secret nuclear program and stop
testing missiles. And unless she submits, Iran will be strangled with
sanctions.
Pompeo’s speech at the Heritage Foundation read like the terms of
some conquering Caesar dictating to some defeated tribe in Gaul, though
we had yet to fight and win the war, usually a precondition for
dictating terms.
Iran’s response was to disregard Pompeo’s demands.
And crushing U.S. sanctions were imposed, to brutal effect.
Yet, as one looks again at the places where Pompeo ordered Iran out —
Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, Syria, Iraq — no vital interest of ours was
imperiled by any Iranian presence.
The people who have a problem with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in
Lebanon are the Israelis whose occupations spawned those movements.
As for Yemen, the Houthis overthrew a Saudi puppet.
Syria’s Bashar Assad never threatened us, though we armed rebels to
overthrow him. In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militia helped us to
defend Baghdad from the southerly advance of ISIS, which had taken
Mosul. Who wants us to plunge back into the Middle East, to fight a
new and wider war than the ones we fought already this century in
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen?
Answer: Pompeo and Bolton, Bibi Netanyahu, Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman and the Sunni kings, princes, emirs, sultans and the other
assorted Jeffersonian democrats on the south shore of the Persian Gulf. And lest we forget, the never-Trumpers and neocons in exile
nursing their bruised egos, whose idea of sweet revenge is a U.S. return
to the Mideast in a war with Iran, which then brings an end to the
Trump presidency.
