«Η Γερμανία ευθύνεται για τον ανηφορικό αγώνα της Ελλάδας»
ΗΜΕΡΗΣΙΑ On Line
"Η" Online 28/4 22:43
"Η" Online 28/4 22:43
Τονίζεται ότι στο τέλος η Ελλάδα θα επιτύχει κάποιου είδους συμφωνία με τους δανειστές της και θα παραμείνει στην Ευρωζώνη καθιστώντας το ευρώ «μη αναστρέψιμη επιλογή».
Τονίζεται ακόμη ο ρόλος της Γερμανίας στην ΕΕ η οποία , σύμφωνα με το δημοσιογράφο, ωφελείται από τις εξαγωγές της εντός της ΕΕ αλλά και από τη συσσώρευση πλεονασμάτων ενώ την ίδια στιγμή η στάση της δημιουργεί ασυμμετρία εντός της ΕΕ ωθώντας τις πιο αδύνατες οικονομίες όπως αυτές της Ελλάδας, της Πορτογαλίας, της Ισπανίας, της Ιταλίας ακόμα και της Γαλλίας να προχωρούν σε μεταρρυθμίσεις δομικού χαρακτήρα και να προβαίνουν σε αντίστοιχες δημοσιονομικές προσαρμογές. ........................................................................................................συνεχίζεται πιό κάτω
Blame Germany for Greece’s uphill euro zone struggle
Greece is running out of cash and is raiding municipal funds to pay its bills, enraging mayors throughout the country. Given Greece’s increasingly dire financial state, you would presume that the game has finally ended. It seems inevitable that Greece will default, crash out of the euro zone, reprint the drachma and, after a suitable period of economic mayhem, pull its act together, as Argentina did after it defaulted more than a decade ago.
Forget it. Greece will get a deal of some
sort that will keep it within the euro zone, preserving the notion that
the euro is “irreversible,” to use the description beloved by European
Central Bank president Mario Draghi. But would that be good news for
Greece? On the contrary, it might well doom it to an eternity of misery
and hard work that goes nowhere, like Sisyphus, rolling his boulder to
the top of the hill, only to have it roll down again.
Blame
Germany, Europe’s self-perpetuating economic miracle. Germany is a
juggernaut of endless current-account and trade surpluses, which are
making it impossible for the euro zone to achieve any balance and
symmetry. Those gorgeous (to the Germans) surpluses are making the euro
zone’s weaklings – Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, even France – do most
of the structural and fiscal adjustments. They grind away, getting
nowhere, while Germany goes from strength to strength.
There
is no doubt that Germany’s love affair with the euro is deep and
passionate. Since the common currency was launched as an accounting
currency in 1999 (the notes and coins came three years later), German
exports, the trade surplus and the current account surplus – the
positive difference between a country’s savings and investment – have
soared. In 2014, the current account surplus stood at a record 7.4 per
cent of gross domestic product, up from 6.7 per cent in 2013, which
itself was extremely high.
There’s
more. Germany derived 46 per cent of GDP in 2013 from exports. That
makes it the global export champion among the industrialized countries.
The equivalent figure in China is 26 per cent. In the United States,
it’s a mere 13 per cent. As the euro sinks, German exports will grow. A
euro valued at $1.60 (U.S.) or more might reflect the true strength of
the German economy. Luckily for Germany, the euro now trades a $1.07. If
that weren’t gift enough, German sovereign bonds have been the prime
beneficiaries of the flight to safety. This week, the yield on German
10-year bonds was 0.1 per cent, down 1.4 percentage points in a year.
That’s money for nothing. At the rate the bonds are trending, it won’t
be long before the yields turn negative, meaning investors will be
paying the German treasury for the privilege of owning its paper.
For
the health of the euro zone, Germany would, ideally, save less, invest
more, raise wages and let inflation take off. That would stoke up
domestic demand and suck in imports from the rest of Europe, poor little
Greece included. But that’s not the German style, never has been, never
will be. Germans are allergic to inflation. The country spends
relatively little on infrastructure. It is only now, begrudgingly,
raising wages after a long period of austerity after the reunification
of East and West Germany, in which time wage growth went nowhere.
The
entire German machine seems geared to surpluses. In a Stratfor note
published on April 21, George Friedman, who has written a book on the
European crisis called Flashpoints, said: “Comparative advantage assumes
[Germany] will want to export those things that it produces most
efficiently. It is instead exporting any product that it can export
competitively regardless of the relative internal advantage … whatever
problem [Greece] has in maximizing its own exports, doing so in an
environment where Germany is pursuing all export possibilities that have
any advantage decreases Greece’s opportunity to export, thereby
creating long-term dysfunction in Greece.”
Indeed,
which brings us back to the new Greek crisis, deepening by the minute.
Greece owes billions of euros to creditors, from the International
Monetary Fund to the owners of Hellenic Railways bonds, in the next few
months. It can’t possibly pay the bills without another tanker load of
cash from the euro zone countries. But the euro zone countries are
demanding extensive economic reforms, many of which Greece’s radical
left Syriza government is unable or unwilling to meet.
The
negotiations will go to the wire, as they always do, and some “extend
and pretend” compromise will be found that will allow Greece to stumble
along inside the euro zone, this time with even more debt and austerity.
Germany will not allow Greece to leave, even though Germany in no way
believes that little, uncompetitive, tax-evading Greece deserves euro
zone membership. As Mr. Friedman pointed out, Germany fears a Greek exit
because Greece, on its own, would no doubt install tariffs and other
barriers designed to shield its economy from ruthless exporters. Germany
needs to protect its surplus model, which depends on European free
trade. Never mind that guaranteeing the German success model means
turning Greece into Sisyphus........................................................................................................................................................
Αναφέρεται ότι δεν υπάρχει αμφιβολία για την προσήλωση της Γερμανίας στο ευρώ αλλά τονίζεται ότι η οικονομική ευρωστία της και οι εξαγωγές της καθίστανται ζημιογόνες για τους εταίρους της, αφού ακολουθεί μία σταθερή πολιτική που αντίκειται στον πληθωρισμό, στην αύξηση των μισθών και την κατανάλωση.
Τέλος, αναφέρεται ότι η Γερμανία, ακόμα και εάν υπάρχουν φωνές για το αντίθετο, δεν θα αφήσει την Ελλάδα να αποχωρήσει από το ευρώ και να προστατεύσει τον εαυτό της από "αδίστακτες" εξαγωγικά χώρες γιατί η παραμονή της διευκολύνει το μοντέλο που ήδη ακολουθείται και εξυπηρετεί τα γερμανικά συμφέροντα.