November 27, 2014 6:53 pm
Germany is stepping up its engagement in the Balkans amid concerns
Russia is seeking to reassert itself beyond Ukraine and further into southeast Europe.
President Joachim Gauck visited Slovenia this week in the
latest display of Berlin’s determination tocounter concerns of growing Russian influence in the region
In contrast to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who spent much of a recent trip to Serbia reviewing a military parade, the former Protestant pastor called on a vocational training centre, a monastery and an aircraft factory.
“A visit by the highest-ranking German official demonstrates our commitment to the region,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee with a special interest in the Balkans.
“We must make more such visits. We must also send more experts [to assist with economic and political transformation],” said Mr Kiesewetter. “We must accept that this will cost more . . . We have to respond. Russia is coming into the region as a competitor.”
The Ukraine crisis is stoking fears in
western capitals that Moscow is now seeking to impose its will in other
countries in eastern Europe, including the Balkans. Angela Merkel gave voice to such concerns during
a trip to Australia for this month’s G20 summit, saying she did not
want to return to the days when Moscow could dictate decisions in other
eastern European capitals. “It’s not just about Ukraine, it’s about Georgia. If this goes any further, will we have wonder about Serbia, about the western Balkans?” the chancellor said.
And she made clear Germany would respond, saying: “This is in no way in line with our values.” German officials worry that Mr Putin, who once described the Soviet Union’s collapse as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”, is focused on states besides Ukraine that are also politically or economically vulnerable, such as the former republic of Yugoslavia. While Slovenia and Croatia are now EU members, the other west Balkan countries are still trying to join the club.
Berlin fears that even EU members are vulnerable – notably those with historic and economic links, such as Bulgaria. Other Moscow targets are countries highly dependent on Russia for gas, including Slovakia and Hungary, and nations with sizeable Russian minorities, such as Estonia and Latvia.
“This is really about Moscow’s influence on the outside world,” says a German official. “There is no reason why it should be limited to Ukraine. If they want to stake out a claim for the future they will do it everywhere. It’s quite clear in SerbiaVIDEO: Russia's next move in Ukraine FT COMMENT. see ft.com > World>
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Serbia
may be particularly susceptible to Moscow because of its continued
resentment over the aftermath of the Balkan wars that raged in the
1990s. Belgrade refuses to accept the loss of Kosovo, with its ethnic
Albanian majority, which broke away in the 1999 war. While most EU
states recognise Kosovo’s independence, Russia supports Belgrade’s
non-recognition.
As Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s modernising prime minister, pushes for EU membership, nationalists argue he should never bow to pressure from Brussels to recognise Kosovo.
Russia has long seen Orthodox Serbia as a cultural younger brother, and has expanded economic ties. Gazprom, the Russian group, for example, has taken control of Serbia’s gas company.
Pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine have escalated the political turmoil that threatens to tear the country apart
Further reading
Meanwhile, the global financial crisis has also
created opportunities for Russian financing deals, say analysts, by
reducing EU trade, investment and banking ties and boosting
unemployment. Stefan Meister of the DGAP foreign policy group in Berlin,
says: “Russia is developing a strategy for all these countries. Even
when there is no military plan, there is a media campaign, financing and
corruption.”
Ms Merkel has opted to hit back with a diplomatic initiative, including hosting in August in Berlin the first-ever western Balkans summit on the 100th anniversary of first world war. Mr Gabriel’s and Mr Gauchk’s visits are expected to be followed by others.
Mr Kiesewetter argues that Berlin should also respond to positive changes, such as the election of Klaus Johannis, the reform-minded Romanian president, who “deserves support”.
But some in Berlin reject the notion that Russia is the problem in the Balkans. The real challenge is EU weakness, says Dusan Reljic of the SWP think-tank. “There is no chance of Russia manipulating anybody on the ground. The people of the Balkans want to join the EU, not something Russia might offer. Russian influence is not increasing. EU influence has deteriorated since the 2009 global financial crisis.”
But, like Mr Kiesewetter, Mr Reljic says it is right for Berlin to focus attention on the region “and focus the attention on the EU”.
As Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s modernising prime minister, pushes for EU membership, nationalists argue he should never bow to pressure from Brussels to recognise Kosovo.
Russia has long seen Orthodox Serbia as a cultural younger brother, and has expanded economic ties. Gazprom, the Russian group, for example, has taken control of Serbia’s gas company.
In depth
Crisis in UkraineFurther reading
Ms Merkel has opted to hit back with a diplomatic initiative, including hosting in August in Berlin the first-ever western Balkans summit on the 100th anniversary of first world war. Mr Gabriel’s and Mr Gauchk’s visits are expected to be followed by others.
Mr Kiesewetter argues that Berlin should also respond to positive changes, such as the election of Klaus Johannis, the reform-minded Romanian president, who “deserves support”.
But some in Berlin reject the notion that Russia is the problem in the Balkans. The real challenge is EU weakness, says Dusan Reljic of the SWP think-tank. “There is no chance of Russia manipulating anybody on the ground. The people of the Balkans want to join the EU, not something Russia might offer. Russian influence is not increasing. EU influence has deteriorated since the 2009 global financial crisis.”
But, like Mr Kiesewetter, Mr Reljic says it is right for Berlin to focus attention on the region “and focus the attention on the EU”.
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